Bitcoin (BTC) prices are currently stable in the $80K-$85K range but may soon face significant volatility. Factors like developments in Ukraine and Federal Reserve decisions are crucial. Derive’s insights suggest that while current volatility is low, it could surge again, hinting at unpredictable price swings ahead.
The current tranquility in the Bitcoin (BTC) market may not last long, as insights from Derive—a decentralized on-chain options platform—indicate a potential storm brewing. Factors such as geopolitical developments in Ukraine, changes in U.S. regulatory policies, and decisions by the Federal Reserve could ignite significant price volatility in the coming weeks.
Since March 12, BTC has been in a lull, stabilizing between $80K and $85K after a sharp fall from $100K, influenced by President Trump’s tariffs and stagnant U.S. BTC purchases. This period of consolidation has led to a decrease in key volatility metrics, which are now nearing monthly lows.
Despite the calm, Nick Forster, founder of Derive, warns that volatility tends to rebound. He notes that while BTC’s weekly at-the-money (ATM) volatility has dipped to 49%, it likely will rise again to levels observed in February (60-70%). This means significant price fluctuations, both upwards and downwards, could soon be on the horizon.
The upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision is also expected to sway market sentiment. While a continuation of current rates is anticipated, the potential for two to three cuts by year-end is being priced in, reflecting underlying recession fears, as noted by BlackRock.
Should stock markets continue to falter, the potential for a sharp decrease in crypto prices could accelerate volatility, creating further tumult in an already unpredictable landscape.
In summary, a significant upswing in volatility in the BTC market may soon occur, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic policies. The current calm could be deceptive, as key factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and shifts in regulatory frameworks might catalyze considerable price movements. Thus, traders and investors need to brace for the upcoming changes.
Original Source: www.coindesk.com
